Fuel-Tax Pass-Through

How much of a known-size fuel-tax change reaches the pump, how fast, and is it symmetric? Canada removed the federal consumer carbon price on gasoline (~17.6 ¢/L) on 1 April 2025; we estimate the pass-through ratio ρ, controlling for the crude/wholesale benchmark, with Quebec (cap-and-trade) as the no-removal control, and replicate on the 2026 excise suspension.

Pass-through ratio ρ

Retail drop ÷ GST-adjusted statutory drop. 100% = complete.
–

Asymmetry — "rockets & feathers"

Adjustment half-life (weeks) to cost increases vs decreases.

Retail price & wholesale benchmark

Weekly. Dashed line = 1 Apr 2025 carbon removal; dotted = 14 Apr 2026 excise suspension. Pick a city.

Event-study coefficient path (2025 removal)

Wholesale-removed pre-tax price by event week (95% band). Flat before the event; a clean step down after. k = weeks relative to 1 Apr 2025.

Estimates & refutation

Single static page; Plotly from CDN; all numbers read from data/passthrough.json and data/series.json. No backend. See the full report.