Green-Bond Greenium

How much less does sustainability-labelled sovereign debt yield than its identical conventional twin? German green Bunds matched to their conventional twins. Greenium = (conventional − green) yield, in basis points.

Headline greenium (identical twins)

Pooled across all German twin pairs; block-bootstrap 95% CI.

Greenium term structure

Recent greenium (bp) vs current years-to-maturity.

Greenium over time

Weekly pooled greenium with a dispersion band; overlay an individual twin pair. Shaded = stress windows (COVID, 2022 rate shock).
overlay pair

Raw vs liquidity-adjusted

Pair×date FE panel. The gap between raw and liquidity-adjusted is the liquidity premium embedded in the raw spread.

By-pair greenium & sign stability

A genuine greenium should be consistently signed across pairs.

Refutation: placebo & liquidity-only

Placebo: a conventional bond's deviation from the conventional curve should be ~0 (CI spans 0), so the greenium is not a mechanical maturity/curve artefact. Green legs sit below that curve. Liquidity-only: the greenium that survives at equal liquidity.