Current recession probability
Headline DFM nowcast with 5–95% band.
Calibration (reliability)
Predicted vs observed frequency; on-diagonal = well calibrated.
Recession probability vs realised recessions
DFM (with band) vs term-spread probit and Sahm; shaded = recession months (target).
Out-of-sample scorecard
Pseudo-real-time expanding window. Brier/AUC with block-bootstrap 95% CIs; DM = Diebold-Mariano p-value vs the term-spread probit (lower Brier is better).
Vintage vs final-data (US)
Real-time skill should be ≤ final-data skill — if final-data looked far better, apparent skill would be a revision artefact.