Full Capacity — 2026 World Cup Transit Strain Dashboard

Transit Strain by City

Strain Index = projected incremental riders divided by scheduled corridor capacity in the 3-hour match window (0–10 scale). Circle size = matches hosted; color = peak strain. See the Strain Calculator below for full methodology.

Strain Index

9–10 Extreme

7.5–9 Very High

6–7.5 High

4–6 Moderate

<4 Low

Data Status

● MTA: ~4–6 wk lag

● CDMX: ~2 day lag

● NTD panel: monthly

● Match calendar: manual

Updated weekly via
GitHub Actions

City Analysis

Select a city to see the confirmed match schedule, ridership trends, and corridor capacity details. Match dates and teams sourced from the official FIFA 2026 schedule.

Select a city above to load its analysis panel.

The Cost of Getting There

Stadium round-trip transit fare by city. Three lenses: raw USD cost, cost relative to local workers, and cost relative to the international visiting fan. Toggle to compare.

How to read this: $ Absolute shows the raw roundtrip transit cost in USD. % of Local Min Wage contextualizes the fare for local residents paid at the minimum wage floor. % of Daily Travel Budget uses a $175/day estimate (median reported spend for a traveling World Cup fan from published FIFA and tourism data) to put the fare in perspective for international visitors. At Qatar 2022, transit was free for all ticket holders; at Russia 2018, a Moscow Metro roundtrip cost roughly $0.60 USD. Both benchmarks appear on the chart.

Past World Cups: Transit as Benchmark

How does 2026 compare to the tournaments that came before? Three data points that set the context for every number on this page.

Why this matters for 2026: Qatar 2022 proved that free bundled transit dramatically raises mode share and cuts post-match egress time. Vancouver copied that playbook directly. Russia 2018 showed that deep, high-frequency urban metro systems absorb World Cup demand without special infrastructure, provided the stadium is directly served. Brazil 2014 is the cautionary tale: five cities, limited rail, and a tournament that was operationally chaotic at the transit level. North America 2026 is a hybrid. Two cities (Vancouver, Mexico City) look like Qatar and Russia. Four cities (NYC, Seattle, Atlanta, Toronto) have meaningful rail but narrower, more constrained corridors. The strain index reflects that split.

What-If: Strain Calculator

Adjust assumptions to see how projected transit load compares to available capacity across cities

Parameters

Stadium fill rate 95%

What fraction of seats are actually occupied. 95% is a reasonable baseline for a sold-out WC group game. Lower for early group matches; higher for the Final.

Transit mode share multiplier 100%

100% = each city's baseline estimate (Vancouver 80%, CDMX 60%, NYC 45%, etc.). Push above 100% if free-transit offers or road closures shift more fans to transit. Drop below 100% if ride-share surges or weather pushes people to cars.

Service uplift above WC plan +0%

How much extra capacity agencies add on top of their announced WC service plan (already embedded in the CORRIDOR_PARAMS). A +50% uplift means the agency can run 1.5x the planned WC frequency on short notice.

How strain is calculated Incremental riders = stadium capacity × fill rate × mode share
Corridor capacity = lines × vehicles/hr (WC plan) × seats+standees per vehicle × 3-hour window
Load % = incremental / corridor capacity × 100
Above 100% = demand exceeds scheduled capacity. The system copes via crush loading, longer wait times, or fans walking away.

Projected Load vs Capacity

Model vs. Reality

This dashboard makes predictions. As actual data arrives, this section tracks how well those predictions hold up. Updated as MTA, CDMX, and NTD data publish.

Metric	City	Predicted	Actual	Error	Status

How predictions are made: Ridership uplift is projected using pre-tournament baseline ridership × city-specific uplift factor derived from past event studies and agency surge plans. Strain index predictions come from the corridor capacity model (see Strain Calculator above). Mode share estimates are from agency surveys and comparable event data. Predictions update as better pre-tournament data arrives; actuals update as MTA, CDMX, and NTD publish.